In every company deep dive published on Global Outperformers, I include a detailed valuation model projecting the company’s earnings, cash flow, and key metrics over five years.
These models are the financial expression of my investment thesis and I build them to:
Map out how the business could evolve
Tie the narrative to numbers
Serve as a reality check over time (by comparing projections to actuals)
You can also adjust the assumptions like revenue growth, margins, capital intensity, and exit multiple, and see how these changes affect the projected market cap and implied share price.
This allows you to stress-test the idea using your own expectations, not just mine.
These models are a concise summary of all my analytical work on a company and help clarify what has to go right (or wrong) for an investment to work. Over time, they help me refine my judgement and improve signal over noise.
March 2025 - Alphabet (Big tech)
April 2025 - Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (Mexican airport)
May 2025 - Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte (Mexican airport)
June 2025 - International Container Terminal (Philippines/Emerging Markets port operator)
July 2025 - TSMC (Taiwanese semiconductor)